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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd